美中貿易衝突 貿協副董：若兩岸官方對話 有助保護台商

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〔駐美特派員曹郁芬／華府十二日報導〕台灣貿協副董事長劉世忠今天表示，中美貿易戰目前看來會是長期的，對兩岸經貿的影響還待觀察，但如果中國願意透過官方對話與台灣討論因應之道以保障台商利益，相信台灣政府是歡迎的。

劉世忠應美國智庫「史汀生中心」的邀請，今天就美中貿易戰對台灣的影響發表演說，另外出席的還有「韓國經濟中心」負責國會與貿易事務的資深主任史坦格龍，由史汀生中心中國項目主任孫韻主持。

劉世忠指出，如果兩岸能夠恢復官方對話就有機會討論如何保護在中國的台商，但他沒有暗示兩岸聯手制美的意義。

他說，目前看不出川普與習近平任何一方會做大讓步，美方比較有自信，因為美國經濟很好，失業率是十八年最低，川普認為是實踐其競選承諾的時機；但中方也認為時間站在他們那邊，中國經濟承受得起這場衝擊。這場賽局很難斷定誰是絕對的贏家或輸家，但若持續惡化，必定衝擊全球經濟。

劉世忠說，台灣貿協與經濟部都在就台商受到的影響做精密評估，貿協在中國有十個據點，與前兩百大的台商進行問卷與訪談，第一波調查在三月底，另外一波是七月開始進行。目前台商的反應是還沒有感受到很強的衝擊，但需要觀察三至六個月。

他表示，有些台商回應他們是以中國市場為主，未受貿易戰影響；有些台商表示，早已分散風險改到越南及印尼投資，反因轉單效應而受惠，每個產業都不同，但這證明台灣政府的新南向政策是正確的。

劉世忠說，但這次訪美得到的訊息很混亂，美國各界也在評估美國總統川普真正的動機，是針對未來尖端科技的競賽，還是為期中選舉？

他會建議台灣駐外單位應了解川普貿易戰的全面思考為何？他們想要拿到什麼？如何評估中國的回應？如果拿不到想要的會採取什麼行動？因為這與台商的利益息息相關。

劉世忠說，未來如果台灣希望與美國增進經貿關係，台灣也正好藉美中貿易戰了解川普的談判模式，自己要做好準備。

史坦格龍則表示，許多人被川普政府的雜音所混淆，但川普的訊息是明確而一致的，川普批評美國與外國的自由貿易協定已有二十多年的歷史，就任後也實踐其競選諾言退出跨太平洋夥伴協定（TPP），要求重新談判北美自貿協定與美韓自貿協定，基本上是言出必行。

他認為，川普的政府除了要保持美國在科技業的領先，也要把製造業帶回美國，創造就業機會。不過美中貿易戰可能使三星在內的韓國公司在美設廠的產品無法輸到中國，反而影響韓國企業在美國投資生產的意願。（10:35更新）

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